Tensions rise ahead of key SA polls

South Africa goes into local government elections this week under a cloud of anti-immigrants protests, political assassinations, concerns about predicted coalitions, large-scale disillusionment and expected lower voter turnout, notes Legalbrief Africa. The Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) is racing to distribute about 28m reprinted ballot papers as special voting begins today, with chief electoral officer Sy Mamabolo yesterday saying: ‘The printing itself is complete. It’s just the distribution that we are finalising in the course of this evening.’ As reported in Legalbrief Africa, ballot papers had to be reprinted after the Constitutional Court ruled on 15 October that 181 ANC candidates who were excluded from the ballot for failing to submit their final candidate lists by the deadline must be reinstated. News24 reports that the IEC then extended the same relief to 32 other political parties in similar circumstances, meaning ballots across 107 municipalities had to be reprinted to include the restored candidates. More than 2.6m special voters have been approved to cast their ballots over two days. Mamabolo said special voting was an inclusivity mechanism in the electoral scheme, catering for registered voters who could not reach their voting station due to physical infirmity, disability, or those who could not be present on election day. The commission has deployed 127 000 electoral officials to administer home visits and special voting at voting stations.

Just over 29m poten­tial voters will get to choose from 136 790 can­did­ates rep­res­ent­ing a record 546 polit­ical parties, more than three times the num­ber that took part in the muni­cipal elec­tions of 2011. The Sunday Times reports that Pres­id­ent Cyril Ram­a­phosa has deployed more than 500 troops to KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) hot­spots at a cost of more than R34m. Although the deploy­ment is ostens­ibly inten­ded to keep in check the activ­it­ies of March and March, the anti-illegal immig­ra­tion group, the province is on ten­ter­hooks as former Pres­id­ent Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) pushes to take con­trol in the major city of eTh­ek­wini. Zuma, recently dis­charged from hos­pital, said in a short video pos­ted on You­Tube on Fri­day: ‘We are say­ing to South Afric­ans who have been put under very dif­fi­cult con­di­tions for years, this is the time for them to be there and take over and make our coun­try a coun­try of peace.’ Pro­jec­tions by mar­ket research com­pany Ipsos indic­ate that as few as 12.8m people will actu­ally vote if the 2011 local elec­tions voter turnout is a reli­able guide. The com­pany released a sur­vey on Fri­day sug­gest­ing that no party com­manded major­ity sup­port at national level. The Sunday Times notes that the sur­vey has pro­jec­ted that there will be increased and new coali­tion gov­ern­ments in almost all the eight met­ros, as well as in many local and dis­trict muni­cip­al­it­ies. ‘Look­ing at the pre-elec­tion sur­veys, we will prob­ably have new coali­tion gov­ern­ments in most of the met­ro­pol­itan muni­cip­al­it­ies, with numer­ous local and dis­trict coun­cils also expec­ted to be gov­erned through coali­tion arrange­ments,’ said Ipsos polit­ical ana­lyst Mari Har­ris.

SA Defence Minister Angie Motshekga has warned that anti-illegal immigration protests in the country could distract the SA National Defence Force from focusing on the elections. EWN reports that Motshekga said the deployment of 510 soldiers in KZN to maintain law and order could impact their election plan and divert their priorities. Motshekga was briefing the Joint Defence Committee on Friday on President Cyril Ramaphosa's deployment of soldiers to KZN to maintain order during illegal migration protests. At least 50 people have been murdered ahead of the polls. KZN accounts for the most attacks, with the MKP, ANC and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) hardest hit. News24 reports that Ramaphosa condemned the violence, saying those killing councillors and candidates ‘are really seeking to destroy the efficacy of our democracy’. Political analyst Zakhele Ndlovu said the killings are largely intra-party, driven by desperation for access to municipal resources.

Police have identified 331 high-risk voting stations ahead of the elections, reports IoL. National Police Commissioner General Fannie Masemola said the stations had been identified through security assessments as areas with the potential for instability, particularly because of service delivery protests, community unrest and other security-related incidents. On Friday, Masemola said the police had completed assessments in all provinces and were confident that the necessary operational plans and security measures were in place. KZN had the highest number of high-risk voting stations. Senior officers from police headquarters have also been deployed to support provincial operations, while roving operational teams will be available to reinforce deployments where necessary. Specialised units, including the Special Task Force, National Intervention Unit, Tactical Response Teams, Explosives Units and Hostage Negotiators, have been placed on standby. Masemola also said the police were concerned about killings and attacks targeting political party supporters, members and ward candidates in the run-up to the elections, according to IoL. The commissioner also addressed the police’s court application (see Regional section, below) concerning marches and public demonstrations in KZN, saying it was not intended to prevent people from exercising their constitutional right to protest.

The IEC has received the green light from parliamentary committees overseeing its preparations for Wednesday’s local government elections, although concerns remain over ballot security, technical challenges, and the potential for political violence. The Star three parliamentary committees that conducted an oversight visit to the IEC’s headquarters said they were satisfied with its readiness, while urging the commission to maintain vigilance over technical challenges, ballot security and access to voting stations. The committees, however, raised concerns about the security of recalled ballots following the Constitutional Court judgment that allowed additional ANC candidates to participate in the elections. The ruling affected six municipalities and resulted in the inclusion of 181 ANC candidates. Chairperson of the Portfolio Committee on Co-operative Governance & Traditional Affairs Zweli Mkhize stressed the importance of safeguarding the ballots already printed.

KZN Premier Thamsanqa Ntuli has expressed concern over the potential for political intolerance, intimidation, provocation and violence during the final days of campaigning, reports the Cape Times. ‘I therefore call on all political parties, their leadership, candidates and supporters to exercise restraint, demonstrate political maturity and respect one another. We must compete on the strength of our ideas, policies and service delivery commitments, rather than through threats, violence or the destruction of property,’ Ntuli said. In the Western Cape, 55 political parties are expected to contest the City of Cape Town elections, making it a key battleground. Western Cape Premier Alan Winde warned against violence in the taxi industry, saying disputes must be resolved within the confines of the law. Minister of Co-operative Governance & Traditional Affairs Velenkosini Hlabisa said election security remains a priority, with government monitoring cybersecurity threats, electoral fraud and possible violence. Political analyst Professor André Duvenhage praised the IEC's preparations, predicting a watershed election that could weaken ANC support and increase coalition governments.